See The Remote, Be The Remote
For just a minute, I would like you to imagine your remote control. I know you can - it has very likely spent hundreds, if not thousands of hours poised in your right or left hand, ready to spring into action at any moment when your taste for entertainment changes. If you're good, you don't even have to look at the numbers to change the channel. You know every channel by feel, so going back and forth between ESPN, ESPN2 and The Golf Channel is a seamless transition, during which your eyes never have to leave the screen. I know that for many of you men out there, remote control skills are a source of great pride. How many Sundays have you sat in front of your tv, after executing another masterful no-look channel switch that allowed you to catch the final seconds of two simultaneous one o'clock NFL games on separate channels, thinking, "Man, I'm good. There's no one out there who could have pulled that off." And it's ok. I understand.
So, are you imagining your remote control? Are you there? Can you feel it in your hand
- feel the buttons under your fingers? Imagine now that there is a world where every remote control has a red button, and when you push that red button from the comfort of your recliner, an interactive menu pops up on your tv screen - again, the one in your home - that allows you to place a wager on any of the weekend's college or pro football games. Well, such a world exists - and I'm living in it. Among the various services provided by SKY, our internet and cable provider, is SKYbet. With the push of a few buttons on your tv remote, you can let 40 GBP ride on your favorite team without ever leaving your couch.
The red button, in all its glory. Did I mention that I love this country? This is either the greatest thing or the worst thing I have ever seen in my life. I'll let you know which at the end of the season.
Having the ability to bet legally on any sporting event from my couch has opened up a whole new world to me. For instance, I immediately instituted the Gator "hedge bet" after discovering the joys of SKYbet a couple weeks into the college football season. The "hedge bet" was borrowed from one of my good buddies who has utilized the technique for years with his two favorite teams, the Patriots and the Red Sox. Very simply, the hedge bet works like this: If the Gators are favored against an opponent, I bet on the opponent and take the points. If the Gators win and cover, I lose the bet, but don't really care because the Gators won and all is right in the world. If the Gators win but don't cover, then I win both ways and enter a complete state of euphoria because the Gators won the game and I won the bet. Finally, if the Gators lose, my world comes crashing down and I don't eat for a couple of days, but I won the bet, so at least I make a few bucks. Now, I realize I may be upsetting some of the purists out there, but I assure you that my allegiance lies squarely with the Gators. I'm just trying to make any Gator loss, should it occur, a little less painful. A hedge bet should never result in your team winning but some of the shine being taken off the win because you lost the bet.
Armed with these principles, I quickly learned after instituting the Gator "hedge bet" that the key to success is identifying the appropriate amount to bet so that any of the three potential outcomes elicits the desired emotional response. For example, when Florida played Tennessee earlier this year, Florida was a seven point favorite. This game was played shortly after I discovered SKYbet, so it was my first chance to implement the "hedge bet." I plunked down 100 GBP on Tennessee plus 7 points and promptly watched the Gators blow out Tennessee. The Gators had won the game and I had lost the bet - a loss, according to "hedge bet" principles, that I shouldn't have cared about since the Gators won. Unfortunately, losing 100 GBP did manage to put a damper on the Gators' win, which indicated it was too much for a successful hedge bet. Like I said before, I don't ever want my betting on a Gator game to take the shine off of a Gator win. That is the over-riding principle, grasshopper.
The Tennessee game helped me understand, somewhat painfully, that the appropriate hedge amount is somewhere south of 100 GBP. I have tried, since the Tennessee game, to identify the amount that, if lost because the Gators win and cover, will not cause any diminished enjoyment of the win, and will also represent a small kernel of gain that, if they lose the game, will make me feel just a little better. I skipped the Auburn game because I wasn't ready to dip my toe back in the water after the 100 GBP loss on the Tennessee game, and of course it turned out that it would have been the perfect hedge bet, since the Gators were favored by about 20, one of the most ridiculous lines of the year, and went out and lost to Auburn at home. Although I'm not sure 1,000 GBP would have eased any of the pain of that loss. The Gators were underdogs to LSU the next week, so there was no hedge bet available for that game. I got back in the action last weekend, and bet 25 GBP on Kentucky +7. When UF won and covered, even though it was totally ridiculous because Kentucky didn't kick the extra point when they scored with no time remaining in the game, making it an 8 point margin of victory instead of 7, I really felt no pain from losing the bet. If UF had lost, I would have been upset about the loss, but I wouldn't have minded the extra 25 pounds from winning the bet. It wouldn't off-set the Gator loss, but I could at least go to bed knowing I had made a couple bucks.
The Kentucky game let me know that I'm in the ball park with 25 GBP. Theoretically, it tells me that the correct amount is somewhere between 25 and 100 GBP, but I think it will end up around 25 GBP. UF is a 9-point favorite right now over Georgia for this weekend's game in Jacksonville, so it provides another hedge-bet opportunity. I will probably go up to 30 or 40 GBP and see how that works out. I will of course keep you all posted, since I know that you are all anxiously awaiting my findings. Also, I now have to bet against the Gators when they are favored, since every time I have bet against them so far this year, the Gators have covered. If it costs me 200 GBP to ensure the Gators make the trip to the SEC Championship in Atlanta, so be it. I have a responsibility to the team.
Anybody got the Gambler's Anonymous Hotline number?
Any of you who have followed SportDork.com since its inception know that there has been virtually no NFL talk on these pages. I wish I could say that this was an elaborate plan and that I have been waiting to unveil my NFL commentary until the week before the historic Dolphins/Giants game in Wembley Stadium, but that would be a lie. The real reason there hasn't been any NFL talk from The SportDork is that I started the season 0 - 6 after three weeks in my NFL pool (in which you pick two games each week), and I just couldn't bring myself to discuss anything about the NFL. I followed up my 0 - 6 start by going 1 - 5 in weeks four through six, for a total record of 1 - 11, which is some kind of record in our pool. A funny thing happened, though. Instead of getting more upset, I became amused at my complete inability to pick NFL games, and that's when I decided that it wasn't fair for me to keep this kind of talentless-ness to myself - it was time to share it with the SportDork Nation!!! I mean, on some level, isn't it just as impressive to go 1 - 11 as it is to go 11 - 1? It takes the same amount of skill-less-ness to go 1 - 11 when you are actually legitimately trying to pick winners as it takes skill to go 11 - l, no?
And so, after a long, contentious staff meeting here at SportDork Headquarters, the decision was made to unveil the latest of so many features that keep SportDork.com fresh and, as was pointed out in a reader comment last week, better than SportCenter AND CNN:
The SportDork's NFL Picks Of The Week!!!
I've spent way too much time building up to my Picks Of The Week in this week's entry, so I'm only going to make a couple of picks this week. Just enough to give you a taste of what you can expect in upcoming weeks and leave you wanting more - or realizing that it's time to take SportDork.com out of your book-marked web sites.
When the NFL plays its first regular season game ever in London, I think you know where I'm going for my first Pick Of The Week:
N.Y. Giants - 9.5 @ Miami Dolphins (in London): This game is technically a home game for the Dolphins, even though it is being played in London. Like the Dolphins need to get screwed any more. I hear Dolphins season ticket holders are real pleased about having to go to London to catch a "home" game - although as bad as the Dolphins have been, the ticket holders are probably thrilled to have them out of the country for a week. Mrs. SportDork and I are going to the game, so I will be providing a full report next week. Tickets went fast and there has been a lot of hype for the game. It should be interesting to see how they do a tailgate over here. Not too sure how to work potatoes into the tailgate meal. Here's a link to a great press release about the hype: http://www.london.gov.uk/view_press_release.jsp?releaseid=14175
You know it's a big event when Christian Slater is in on the action. I was going to say that I'm happy to see he didn't try to bring a firearm on the plane with him this time, but apparently he is living in London, so no worries in that department.
Have you seen the Jason Taylor animatron that they just unveiled? Check him out:
It's 26 feet high and can actually move its arms and legs. I guess that would be the definition of 'animatron.' That thing getting on the field for a few plays is about the only chance the Fish have.
I don't have any Giants or Dolphins gear, and I'm not planning on getting any, unless they have a Giants jersey that says, "Eli Is A Weenie." I do, as you know, have plenty of Gator gear, so I will be decked out in my Gator sweatshirt and Gator winter cap (if necessary). I will count the number of 'Go Gators!' that I get while at the game and will report back on Tuesday.
It's 26 feet high and can actually move its arms and legs. I guess that would be the definition of 'animatron.' That thing getting on the field for a few plays is about the only chance the Fish have.
I don't have any Giants or Dolphins gear, and I'm not planning on getting any, unless they have a Giants jersey that says, "Eli Is A Weenie." I do, as you know, have plenty of Gator gear, so I will be decked out in my Gator sweatshirt and Gator winter cap (if necessary). I will count the number of 'Go Gators!' that I get while at the game and will report back on Tuesday.
What does any of this have to do with who I'm taking in this game? Absolutely nothing. But this game is a first class stinker, so what else am I going to talk about? Did you know that Jason Taylor is married to Zach Thomas' sister? They almost got divorced a few years ago, but then they were able to "work it out." I wonder if it had anything to do with Zach telling Jason that if he didn't straighten out, he was going to run up behind him during the next game from his linebacker position and take out his knees. Anyway, on to my pick!!
Did you know that underdogs are not only covering at a ridiculous rate this year, but that they are also winning outright at a ridiculous clip? Going into last weekend, underdogs had covered and won the game 30 of 45 times. Impressive numbers. Those numbers definitely favor Miami. And the Giants giving 9.5 points? The Giants only win games when they are expected to lose and have their backs against the wall, like when they started the year 0 - 2. They consistently lose when they're expected to win. Another factor in favor of the Dolphins.
And here's why none of that matters. The Dolphins are beyond awful. In a league where there is great parity, and few teams are much better or much worse than any other team, the Dolphins are one of the few - in the same way that the Patriots and Colts are that much better than everyone else, the Dolphins are that much worse. The only bright spot on the entire team, Ronnie Brown, just tore his ACL and is out for the year. They had two guys covering Randy Moss last weekend against the Patriots that I swear I saw working at my office before I moved to England.
If this were any other team in the league, I would jump all over the Dolphins, figuring they would pull it together for the big game in London in an attempt to look respectable in an international game and pull themselves from the ranks of the winless, but they don't have any players to pull it together with. The Dolphins know their season is over, so I expect them to come over here and take advantage of the free international travel. Party time, my friends. Why not party it up? It's not like there's a playoff berth on the line. I'd be surprised if half the team even makes it back to the hotel to catch the bus to the game on Sunday. I heard that some of the players were in favor of bringing back Ricky Williams since Ronnie Brown is out, but that's only because they know Ricky will be able to hook them up with some kind bud.
The Giants are famous for losing games they should win and playing down to their competition, and Eli Manning is a first-class weenie (I'm sorry - there's just no other way to describe him), but they have every reason to treat this as a business trip and to avoid collapsing for what seems like the 20th year in a row after being a position to lock down a playoff spot.
My wagering friends - go forth and prosper with the SportDork's NFL Pick Of The Week!!!!!: N.Y. Giants - 9.5
I will admit that I have placed a small sum on this contest. The best part about this game being played in London is that you can bet on more than just the outcome. You can be on everything from which team will commit the first penalty to how many bowel movements Eli Manning will have in the eight hours leading up to kick-off. I've got 10 GBP on two, which pays out three to one. The Dolphins defense doesn't pose much of a threat, so I'm figuring he'll be pretty relaxed before the game.
San Diego - 9.5 vs. Houston (at San Diego, kind of): If my first pick was a game played in another country, then my second pick has to be a game played in - well, we don't know yet, but as I'm writing this, it sure looks like it won't be Qualcomm Stadium, which is the Charger's home field. Apparently, the wild fires in California are so bad that they are using Qualcomm Stadium as a fire-refugee camp, and they're not sure where this game will be played. Also, this is another 9.5 point game, so I've got a real "the home team isn't playing at home and the spread is 9.5 points" theme going on here.
I don't know who is playing quarterback for the Texans, and I don't particularly care. I also don't know who's hurt, where they are in the standings, or a variety of other pieces of information that might be useful in picking a winner in this contest. The fact is, I don't need to know any of that stuff, because picking the winner in this game comes down to answering one question. A number of the Chargers players, including Ladainian Tomlinson (who I just realized I am mentioning for the second week in a row), have been forced to evacuate their homes, which are in danger of burning down. While this has obviously got to be a distraction for the players who have had to leave their homes, it leads to the one question that will determine the winner of this game: will the prospect of their homes burning down while they are playing the Texans make them sad, or will it make them mad?
I go with very mad, and wanting to beat the shit out of someone. Take the Chargers and give the 9.5.
That's all I've got for this week. I know you are probably relieved. Sorry if you just wasted your entire lunch hour reading today's entry. I'll try to do better next time.
My good buddy Tom is in town this weekend (starting Thursday (yesterday)), so I actually put this entry together on Wednesday. If anything has happened since Wednesday that has made any of my comments extremely inappropriate or irrelevant or even stupider, I apologize. If things went as planned, then yesterday we attempted to conquer "The Gauntlet" of pubs in my town for the first time. We both yelled "Cheers!" repeatedly, narrowly averted a good a*s whipping at multiple establishments and eventually hurled. (If this is not what actually happened, I will make the appropriate revisions, but I doubt it will be necessary.)
Next Week: A Dolphins/Giants recap and pictures from The SportDork's first run through "The Gauntlet"!!!
Judging by the general puffiness of the Sports Dork my guess is that next to the SkyBet button there is also a Fish and Chips home delivery button too.
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If you are going to persist with the weight comments, the least you could do is make sure your food references are current. Fish and Chips are so last decade. It's all about Curry now, my man!! Pressing any of the three buttons to the right of the red button (circled in red below) will get a steaming hot plate of Chicken Jalfrezi delivered to your doorstep. The blue button is mild, the yellow is medium, and the green is hot.
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yawnnnn. What about GA/UF? Is it even mentioned in the War and Peace like entry above?
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What about GA/UF??!!! Did you not read the riveting expose on the principles of the Gator hedge bet, which included an entire section on my plans for the GA/UF game? As one of my loyal readers, I'm counting on you to at least read the entry before expressing outrage at the fact that it didn't include something that it actually did include!
Having said that, I can't thank you enough for the comparison to War and Peace. I checked out a couple of reviews, and here's what I found from Library Journal:
"The complexities of character and plot are sometimes enigmatic, and names are often exhausting to recollect, but the genius of this book is everlasting. The impressive dialog sparkles with humor and wit, and the vivid scenes of battle are riveting. An entire universe is created by one of the foremost thinkers of the 19th century, and Davidson's exquisite narration heightens the perfection of this novel, regarded as one of the greatest in literature. Highly recommended for all collections."
I was truly amazed at the applicability of this review to both War and Peace and SportDork.com. Complexities of character and plot that are sometimes enigmatic, impressive dialog that sparkles with humor and wit, vivid scenes of battle (mine are college football related, but it still works), and exquisite narration? Uncanny parallels!!! For some time now, I have believed that, much like War and Peace, the genius of SportDork.com is everlasting and that it is highly recommended for all collections, but to have one of my readers confirm it means the world to me.
In fact, I am so moved by your comment that I have decided it is worthy of Co-Comment Of The Week status!!!! We've never had a tie for the Comment Of The Week, but this week it was just too close to call. The praise you have bestowed on SportDork.com shot your entry to the top, while the diligent research conducted by our other commenter was enough to put his entry in the winner's circle as well. Congratulations. You deserve it.
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you'll love it! plus, it's FL!
http://www.wftv.com/news/14431203/detail.html
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I highly recommend clicking on the link provided above. Much like last week's Comment Of The Week winner, this comment has it all. Outstanding, diligent research, as well as incredibly topical subject matter that includes both White Strips and Florida.
There is little more I can add to the genius of your comment, other than - Congratulations!!! Your comment has been selected as this week's Co-Comment Of The Week !!! We would have loved to have given it to you outright, but another reader heaped such praise on SportDork.com that we had to give him a piece of the title as well.
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